What Is Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation About the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started investing in bitcoins and I’ve heard a lot of talks about inflation and deflation but not many people actually know and think about what inflation and deflation are. But let’s focus on inflation.

We always needed ways to trade value and the most practical way to take action is to link it with money. In the past it worked quite well because the money that has been issued was associated with gold. So every central bank had to have enough gold to pay back all the money it issued. However, during the past century this changed and gold isn’t what’s giving value to money but promises. As you can guess it’s very an easy task to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks aren’t renouncing to do so. Because of this they’re printing money, so quite simply they are “creating wealth” out of nothing without really having it. This technique not only exposes us to risks of economic collapse nonetheless it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money is worth less, whoever is selling something must increase the price of goods to reflect their real value, that is called inflation. But what’s behind the amount of money printing? Why are plateforme de trading fiable doing so? Well the answer they would give you is that by de-valuing their currency they’re helping the exports.

In fairness, inside our global economy that is true. However, that is not the only reason. By issuing fresh money we are able to afford to cover back the debts we’d, put simply we make new debts to cover the old ones. But that is not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we have been de-facto de-valuing our debts. That’s why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s better to grow because debts are cheap. But which are the consequences of most this? It’s hard to store wealth. So if you keep the money (you worked hard to obtain) in your bank account you are actually losing wealth because your money is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank has an inflation target at around 2% we can well say that keeping money costs most of us at least 2% per year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is one way our economies are working, predicated on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is often the opposite of inflation in fact it is the biggest nightmare for the central banks, let’s understand why. Basically, we have deflation when overall the costs of goods fall. This might be caused by an increase of value of money. For starters, it could hurt spending as consumers will be incentivised to save money because their value will increase overtime. However merchants will be under constant pressure. They will have to sell their goods quick otherwise they’ll lose money because the price they will charge for their services will drop over time. But when there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments usually do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care probably the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt will become a real burden since it will only get bigger as time passes. Because our economies derive from debt you can imagine exactly what will function as consequences of deflation.

So to summarize, inflation is growth friendly but is based on debt. Which means future generations will pay our debts. Deflation alternatively makes growth harder nonetheless it means that future generations won’t have much debt to cover (in such context it might be possible to cover slow growth).

OK so how all of this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are made to be an alternative for the money also to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They are limited in number and we will never have a lot more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they are designed to be deflationary. We now have all seen what the results of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it would still be easy for businesses to thrive. The ideal solution will be to switch from a debt-based economy to a share-based economy. Actually, because contracting debts in bitcoins would be very expensive business can still have the capital they need by issuing shares of their company. This could be an interesting alternative as it will offer many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will undoubtedly be distributed more evenly among people. However, just for clarity, I must say that the main costs of borrowing capital will be reduced under bitcoins because the fees will be extremely low and there will not be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This might buffer some of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to cover back the huge debts that we inherited from the past generations.